I could not resist and take a week off enjoying cross country skiing in the Antholz Valley with its Biathlon Center offering professional trails - the same as used at the Biathlon Wold Cup (again).
In seeking optimal risk it is important to select the right trails, length and duration, steepness and speed to have fun, but avoid hazardous actions.
The resilient strategy
There is no need for me to take the winner-takes-it-all game selecting the special purpose ski and wax for the special conditions (temperature, humidity, snow conditions, ..), but the resilient strategy of general purpose ski and wax. I am over 65 and I do not race.
The speculative swap
Yesterday, Andreas gave the public lecture We valuate THE swap, for close to hundred people with different background, knowledge and interest from the citizen to the distinguished quant finance experts. Andreas managed perfectly to explain the complex concept to non experts whilst explaining where the complexity comes from to the experts.
Already published posts: A History of Floating Rates and Getting Numbers for the Swap.
Another post about the swap will follow tomorrow.
Next week all posts will be about Mathematics (more about the swap) and Physics.
What makes the swap story so exciting? It has so prototypically aggregated all possible misunderstandings, and consequently landed at the court. There is a major, dominant risk factor, but questions, like is the model right, are the data right, was the timing right, … seemed to dominate discussions? Andreas untangled them. Enjoy reading about it.
My relation with the next future
The southern part of the alps got too much snow per day in the previous days (people really suffered from closed streets and railway tracks, broken wires, avalanches …. ).
Why do I think that next week is likely better than the last? The weather forecasts are not too precise in turbulent times. Maybe a believe in power laws?
I do not invest very much and really avoid dangerous routes and trails. I drive main roads through wide valleys, avoid high passes, the hotel is far away from an area that can be reached by avalanches and I choose safe skating trails, ..).
I will get a little paradise with trails that are daily prepared taking me through romantic forests lost in snow … across a small frozen lake …
Edit: on an abstract level, it has to do with "the swap"