During the holiday time I have been cross country skiing at the Bohemian Forest that is an ideal region from young professionals to elder skaters, like myself (over 65).
And again optimizing risk means to me: long and fast enough to have fun, but not too long and fast to avoid harm.
Playing the winner-takes-it-all game?
It was long ago that I attended amateur races and thought about the winner-takes-it-all strategies against many other participants, where accuracy is the rational play - take the risk of a special purpose ski and wax (before the skating technique this was even more complicated) that is for a special temperature, humidity and snow conditions (there are hundreds of different snow crystals). Picking a general purpose ski and wax is the resilient strategy.
You need to decide in advance and conditions may change quickly and you need to make 2 decisions on predictions: the risk label and the concrete equipment selection.
This is related to quant work for risk management
Accuracy is the more rewarding way to deal with a future that seems predictable. It rewards those who bet on one possible result. Resilience is the strategy for those that do not believe that trey can predict the future with more accuracy than there market participants. It is an investment in a range of possible outcomes.
In UnRisk we support accuracy and resilience strategies by multi model-and-method approaches and across scenario flexibility - read more about the complexity here and here.
This post was inspired by Seth Godin's post
Picture from the Upper Austrian Tourism Association
